Are we approaching tipping points in the Siberian Arctic ?
We observed a remarkable correlation between temperature and burned area in the Siberian Arctic, exhibiting an almost exponential pattern. This relationship implies the existence of a critical threshold along the temperature axis, beyond which a slight temperature increase can trigger a substantial surge in burned area above the Arctic Circle. This threshold, set at 10 degrees, signifies a tipping point.
When summer temperatures surpass this threshold, we witness a surge in burned areas, indicating an acceleration of fire activity. From the analyzed time series spanning from 1982 to 2020, only five instances were recorded where summers exceeded 10 degrees: 2001, 2002, and the last three years (2018, 2019, 2020). Notably, these years also saw the largest burned areas, with 2020 being the warmest summer, registering a temperature three degrees higher than in 1982 and exhibiting the largest extent of burned areas.
Considering this trend, it is anticipated that a greater number of summers will experience temperatures exceeding 10 degrees, leading to an escalation in fire occurrences.
